Paieška

Klientų palaikymas: (+357) 22314160

FOREX IR CFD PREKYBA YRA LABAI RIZIKINGA

Rinkos panorama. 27 Liepa 2017

DĖMESIO: Laisvai peržiūrėti Rinkos panoramos medžiagą galite šešias valandas po jos pateikimo. Jeigu norite šią medžiagą gauti iš karto, rekomenduojame ją užsiprenumeruoti.

I. Market focus:

27/07/2017

At the beginning of the Thursday session, the outcomes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) meeting that ended yesterday afternoon remained in market participants’ focus. As widely expected, the U.S. regulator did not make any changes to the policy stance, maintaining the target range for the federal funds rate at between 1 percent and 1.25 percent. Despite the fact that the Fed announced that it planned to start shrinking its $4.5 trillion balance sheet “relatively soon,” the accompanying statement overall was more dovish than expected. The FOMC members noted that inflation was expected to remain somewhat below the Fed’s 2 percent target in the near term and the Committee will continue monitoring inflation developments closely. Against this backdrop, expectations the Fed will slow the pace of monetary tightening have grown, putting pressure on the U.S. dollar.  

Today, the markets’ focus will be on the U.S. data on durable goods orders (12:30 GMT). Another important event will be the release of the Japanese inflation statistics (23:30 GMT).

The stock market participants’ attention is expected to be on the quarterly results of the companies. Today, the focus will be on Verizon (VZ), Procter & Gamble (PG), Amazon (AMZN), Intel (INTC) and Starbucks (SBUX). The first two names will publish their Q2 financials before the market opens, while the rest will reveal their earnings after the close of today's trading.


II. The market highlights are:

  • The U.S. Commerce Department reported on Wednesday that the sales of new single-family homes rose 0.8 percent m-o-m to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 610,000 units in June. That was the second straight monthly increase in the reading. Economists had forecast a sales pace of 620,000 last month. May’s sales pace was revised down to 605,000 units from the originally reported 610,000 units. In y-o-y terms, new home sales recorded growth of 9.1 percent.

  • The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported Wednesday that crude inventories fell by 7.208 million barrels to 483.415 million barrels in the week ended July 21. Economists had forecast a decline of 2.98 million barrels. At the same time, gasoline stocks decreased by 1.015 million barrels to 230.196 million barrels, while analysts had expected a drop of 1.8 million barrels. Distillate stocks reduced by 1.852 million barrels to 149.564 million barrels last week, while analysts had forecast a fall of 0.5 million barrels. Meanwhile, oil production in the U.S. declined to 9.410 million barrels per day versus 9.429 million barrels per day in the previous week. U.S. crude oil imports averaged over 8.0 million barrels per day last week, up by 48,000 barrels per day from the previous week.

  • Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) released its latest monetary policy decisions on Wednesday afternoon, following the July meeting. As widely expected, the U.S. regulator did not make any changes to the policy stance, maintaining the target range for the federal funds rate at between 1 percent and 1.25 percent.  While policy did not change, the FOMC changed the language on its plans on balance-sheet normalization. Instead of saying that it would start shrinking its balance sheet “this year” it said it would begin this process “relatively soon.” Regarding the Fed's view on inflation, the FOMC members noted that inflation was expected to remain somewhat below the Fed’s 2 percent target in the near term but to stabilize around this level over the medium term. “Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced, but the Committee is monitoring inflation developments closely," said the Fed statement.

  • The report from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed Thursday that import prices in Australia unexpectedly fell by 0.1 percent q-o-q in the second quarter of 2017, following an unrevised 1.2 percent rise in the prior quarter, while economists estimated a 0.7 percent gain. The main contributor to this fall was a decrease in prices paid for mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials (-4.8 percent q-o-q) and machinery and transport equipment (-0.3 percent q-o-q). Offsetting these price drops were rises in manufactured goods classified chiefly by material (+1.9 percent q-o-q), chemicals and related products (+1.7 percent q-o-q), and miscellaneous manufactured articles (+1.0 percent q-o-q). Through the year to the June quarter, the import prices rose 0.3 percent, boosted by higher prices paid for mineral fuels, lubricants, and related materials (+13.9 percent). Meanwhile, export prices declined by 5.7 percent q-o-q in the second quarter of 2017, compared to a downwardly revised 8.8 percent q-o-q surge in the prior quarter (originally a 9.4 percent advance) and economists' forecast for a decline of 6.3 percent q-o-q. The drop was driven by lower prices received for crude materials, inedible, except fuels (-13.1 percent q-o-q) and mineral fuels, lubricants, and related materials (-4.8 percent q-o-q). Offsetting these price falls were rises in food and live animals (+1.8 percent q-o-q) and commodities and transactions (+3.1 percent q-o-q). Through the year to the June quarter, the export prices climbed 22.5 percent, driven by mineral fuels, lubricants, and related materials (+68.3 percent).



III. Market Situation
Currency Market
The currency pair EUR/USD rose slightly, continuing yesterday's rally and approaching its high of January 15, 2015. The catalyst for the pair’s  growth were the outcomes of the Fed’s July meeting.  As widely expected, the U.S. regulator did not make any changes to the policy stance, maintaining the target range for the federal funds rate at between 1 percent and 1.25 percent.  While policy did not change, the FOMC changed the language on its plans on balance-sheet normalization. Instead of saying that it would start shrinking its balance sheet “this year” it said it would begin this process “relatively soon.” This is seen by some market participants as an indication that the U.S. regulator will begin unwinding its balance sheet as soon as its next meeting in September. Regarding the Fed's view on inflation, the FOMC members noted that inflation was expected to remain somewhat below the Fed’s 2 percent target in the near term but to stabilize around this level over the medium term. “Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced, but the Committee is monitoring inflation developments closely," said the Fed statement. Resistance level - $1.1800 (psychological level). Support level - $1.1611 (low of July 26).

The currency pair GBP/USD rose moderately, reaching its highest level since mid-September 2016. The pair was supported by the broad weakening of the U.S. currency, which intensified after the announcement of the outcomes of the Fed’s July meeting. At the same time, market participants continue to analyze yesterday's data on UK’s GDP. Recall, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported the UK’s economy grew by just 0.3 percent q-o-q in the second quarter of 2017 following a 0.2 percent q-o-q expansion in the first three months of the year. Although the reported reading was in line with economists’ forecast, it marked the second slowest growth since the beginning of 2016, with only Q1's figure worse. In y-o-y terms, the economy grew by 1.7 percent, down from 2 percent in the first quarter, also in line with economists’ expectation. The released Q2 GDP data are not expected to have an impact the Bank of England (BoE) officials’ decision on interest rates, which is to be made next week. According to a Reuters poll, published last week, only 2 out of 80 economists believed that the BoE would raise rates at a meeting in August. With an almost empty economic calendar in the UK ahead, investors will focus on the dynamics of the U.S. currency and the general market sentiment toward risky assets. Resistance level - $1.3200 (psychological level). Support level - $1.2999 (low of July 26).

The currency pair AUD/USD traded solidly higher, near the high of January 15, 2015, due to the broad weakness of the U.S. currency and upbeat statistics from China as well. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported China's industrial profits surged 19.1 percent y-o-y to CNY 727.78 billion in June, following a 16.7 percent y-o-y increase in May. In the first half of the year, industrial profits climbed 22 percent y-o-y to CNY 3.63 trillion. Investors ignored data on Australia’s export prices. The report from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) revealed that country’s export prices declined by 5.7 percent q-o-q in the second quarter of 2017, compared to a downwardly revised 8.8 percent q-o-q surge in the prior quarter (originally a 9.4 percent advance) and economists' forecast for a decline of 6.3 percent q-o-q.The drop was driven by lower prices received for crude materials, inedible, except fuels (-13.1 percent q-o-q) and mineral fuels, lubricants, and related materials (-4.8 percent q-o-q). Meanwhile, import prices fell by 0.1 percent q-o-q in the second quarter of 2017, following an unrevised 1.2 percent rise in the prior quarter, while economists estimated a 0.7 percent gain. Resistance level - AUD0.8088 (high of January 15, 2015). Support level - AUD0.7873 (low of July 21).

The currency pair USD/JPY continued yesterday's decline and reached its lowest level since July 24. The U.S. currency was under pressure after the Fed released statement on its latest policy decision, which dampened investor expectations for further interest rate increases this year.  According to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, the odds of another rate hike this year now stand at 48.6%, down from 52% before the release of the Fed meeting’s outcomes and 50.2% a week ago (July 20). Market participants are also awaiting a slew of important statistics in Japan, set to be released later today. According to a Reuters polls, household spending in Japan increased by 0.6 percent y-o-y in June, while retail sales grew 2.3 percent m-o-m. The polls also showed that the unemployment rate in Japan was expected to show a drop to 3.0 percent in June from 3.1 percent in May, and the ratio of jobs to applicants to came in at 1.5, the highest level since February 1974. In addition, the core consumer price index, which includes petroleum products but excludes volatile prices for fresh products, was expected to demonstrate a 0.4 percent m-o-m growth in June. Resistance level - Y112.41 (high of July 20). Support level - Y110.00 (psychological level).


Stock Market

Index

Value

Change

S&P

2,477.83

+0.03%

Dow

21,711.01

+0.45%

NASDAQ

6,422.75

+0.16%

Nikkei

20,079.64

+0.15%

Hang Seng

27,165.23

+0.83%

Shanghai

3,249.29

+0.05%

S&P/ASX

5,785.00

+0.14%


U.S. stock indexes closed higher on Wednesday, notching new record highs, supported by better-than-expected corporate results and the Fed’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged. As widely expected, the FOMC unanimously voted to leave the fed funds target range at between 1 percent and 1.25 percent. Regarding the central bank's $4.5 trillion balance sheet, the regulator indicated that it expects to “begin implementing its balance sheet normalization program relatively soon,” which has been largely interpreted as September. On the macroeconomic front, the U.S. Commerce Department reported that the sales of new single-family homes rose 0.8 percent m-o-m to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 610,000 units in June. That was the second straight monthly increase in the reading. Economists had forecast a sales pace of 620,000 last month. May’s sales pace was revised down to 605,000 units from the originally reported 610,000 units. In y-o-y terms, new home sales recorded growth of 9.1 percent.

Asian stock indexes closed higher on Thursday on optimism about corporate earnings and prospect of the U.S. policy staying stimulative. The Australian equity gauge demonstrated growth, underpinned by a broad-based rally in commodities. The Japanese stock benchmark rose despite the fact the yen strengthened against the U.S. dollar, which is seen as a negative factor for the Japanese export-oriented companies.  

European stock indexes are expected to trade higher in the morning trading session.


Bond Market
Yields of US 10-year notes hold at 2.28% (0 basis points)
Yields of German 10-year bonds hold at 0.54% (-1 basis points)
Yields of UK 10-year gilts hold at 1.24% (0 basis points)

Commodity Markets
Light Sweet Crude Oil (WTI) futures traded lower. Crude oil for delivery in September settled at $48.70 (-0.10%). The crude oil prices fell slightly, correcting after yesterday’s surge, triggered by the latest report on the U.S. crude inventories from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The EIA reported that crude inventories fell by 7.208 million barrels to 483.415 million barrels in the week ended July 21. Economists had forecast a decline of 2.98 million barrels. At the same time, gasoline stocks decreased by 1.015 million barrels to 230.196 million barrels, while analysts had expected a drop of 1.8 million barrels. Distillate stocks reduced by 1.852 million barrels to 149.564 million barrels last week, while analysts had forecast a fall of 0.5 million barrels. Meanwhile, oil production in the U.S. declined to 9.410 million barrels per day versus 9.429 million barrels per day in the previous week. U.S. crude oil imports averaged over 8.0 million barrels per day last week, up by 48,000 barrels per day from the previous week.

Gold traded at $1262.30 (+0.13%). Gold prices rose on the back of the broad weakening of the U.S. currency after the announcement of the outcomes of the Fed's latest meeting. The index, measuring the value of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of six major currencies, fell by 0.30 percent to 93.39, the lowest level since June 23, 2016. Since gold prices are tied to the dollar, a weaker dollar makes the precious metal cheaper for holders of foreign currencies.


IV. The most important news that are expected (time GMT0)


06:00

Germany

Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey

08:00

Eurozone

M3 money supply

12:30

U.S.

Chicago Federal National Activity Index

12:30

U.S.

Durable Goods Orders

12:30

U.S.

Initial Jobless Claims

23:30

Japan

Tokyo Consumer Price Index

23:30

Japan

Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food,

23:30

Japan

National Consumer Price Index

23:30

Japan

National CPI Ex-Fresh Food

23:30

Japan

Unemployment Rate

23:30

Japan

Household spending


Kas svarbiausia rinkoje

  • The eurozone started the third quarter on a solid footing, according to PMI survey data
  • Earnings Season in U.S.: Major Reports of the Week
  • German private sector output growth slowed for the second month running in July
  • ECB's Mersch says as conditions normalise, it is unlikely that uncoventional policies will remain necessary
Liepa 2017
  • 2017
  • 2016
  • 2015
  • 2014
  • 2013
  • 2012
  • 2011
  • 2010
  • 2009
  • 2008
  • 2007
  • 2006
  • 2005
  • 2004
  • 2003
  • 2002
Pir
Ant
Tre
Ket
Pen
Šeš
Sek
1
2
31

Kotiruotės

Visa pateikiama medžiaga - tai rinkodaros priemonės, skirtos vien tik informaciniams tikslams ir jų naudojimas gali sąlygoti nuostolius. Praeityje buvę rezultatai nėra patikimas ateities rezultatų indikatorius. Prašome perskaityti visą mūsų atsakomybės ribojimą.

Prenumeruoti

Privatumo Politika

TeleTrade įmonė, siekdama pagerinti naršymą šioje svetainėje, savo interneto paslaugoms naudoja slapukus. Toliau naršydami šioje svetainėje, jūs sutinkate su slapukų naudojimu. Jeigu jūs su tuo nesutinkate, bet kuriuo metu galite pakeisti savo naršyklės nustatymus. Skaityti daugiau

  • © 2011-2017 TeleTrade-DJ International Consulting Ltd

    TeleTrade-DJ International Consulting Ltd yra įregistruota ir Europos ekonominėje erdvėje prižiūrima, kaip tai nustatyta visose ES valstybėse narėse, kuriose teikiamos MiFID direktyvoje nurodytos paslaugos. The Securities Commission of the Republic of Lithuania.

    TeleTrade-DJ International Consulting Ltd – tai registruota Kipro investicinė įmonė (CIF), kurios registracijos Nr. HE272810. Įmonė taip pat turi Kipro vertybinių popierių ir biržų komisijos (CySEC) licenciją Nr. 158/11.

    Įmonės veikla atitinka Direktyvos dėl finansinių priemonių rinkų (MiFID) nuostatas.

  • Informacija šioje svetainėje pateikiama tik pažintiniais tikslais. Visos pateikiamos paslaugos ir informacija gauta iš šaltinių, kurie laikomi patikimais. TeleTrade-DJ International Consulting Ltd (TeleTrade) ir (arba) bet kuri trečia informaciją teikianti šalis teikia paslaugas bei informaciją be jokių garantijų. Naudodami šią informaciją ir paslaugas, jūs sutinkate, kad TeleTrade jokiomis aplinkybėmis nėra atsakinga už jokio asmens ar organizacijos visus ar dalinius nuostolius ar žalą, patirtą pasitikėjus šia informacija ar paslaugomis.

  • TeleTrade bendradarbiauja su SafeCharge Limited – elektroninių pinigų įstaiga, veikiančią pagal Kipro centrinio banko išduotą leidimą ir priežiūrą, ji taip pat yra pagrindinė MasterCard Europa ir Visa Europa narė. Mes taip pat bendradarbiaujame su Moneybookers ir Neteller, kurie teikia elektroninių piniginių paslaugas ir veikia pagal Finansinės drausmės tarnybos išduotą leidimą bei priežiūrą.

    Prašome perskaityti visas mūsų Naudojimo sąlygas.

  • TeleTrade, norėdama padidinti savo lankytojų naršymo efektyvumą, savo interneto svetainėje naudoja slapukus. Naršydami šioje svetainėje, jūs sutinkate su mūsų slapukų naudojimu. Jeigu jūs nesutinkate, tada bet kuriuo metu galite pakeisti savo naršyklės nustatymus. Skaitykite daugiau

    TeleTrade-DJ International Consulting Ltd šiuo metu savo paslaugų neteikia JAV piliečiams arba gyventojams.

Susisiekti su mumis
Dalintis informacija
socialiniuose tinkluose
Interneto
konsultantas
Atgalinio skambučio užsakymas
Į puslapio viršų