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Rinkos panorama. 17 Lapkritis 2017

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I. Market focus:

17/11/2017

The beginning of the final session of the week was marked by the weakening of the U.S. dollar. The American currency was under pressure due to political risks in the U.S. amid reports that the Special Counsel Robert Mueller investigating Russian interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential election issued a subpoena to more than a dozen officials from Donald Trump's campaign. According to media reports, the subpoena was issued in mid-October and requested documents and emails with keywords related to Russia but didn’t compel any officials to testify before Mueller’s grand jury. So, the negative impact on the U.S. currency is likely to be limited.

Another important report that came from the U.S. was the news the U.S. House of Representatives passed its version of a tax reform bill. To become law, the bill must be approved by the Senate. But the Republican senators have their version of the tax-overhaul plan, which differs from that of the House of Representatives. If the senators insist on their version, they will need to reconcile the key significant differences with the House of Representatives. The Republican senators said they expect the tax-reform legislation to be enacted into law by year's end.

At the beginning of the European session, market participants will pay attention to the comments of ECB President Mario Draghi, who will speak at the European Banking Congress at 08:30 GMT. Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann is also scheduled to speak today at 13:00 GMT. In the second half of today's session, investors’ focus will be on the Canadian inflation data and U.S. housing market statistics (housing starts and building permits). Both reports will be released at 13:30 GMT.


II. The market highlights are:

  • Statistics Canada released its Monthly Survey of Manufacturing Thursday, which showed that the Canadian manufacturing sales rose 0.5 percent m-o-m in September to CAD53.74 billion, following a revised 1.4 percent m-o-m gain in August (originally a 1.6 percent m-o-m advance). Economists had anticipated a drop of 0.3 percent m-o-m for September. According to the survey, the September increases was primarily attributable to higher sales in the petroleum and coal product industry (+10.3 percent m-o-m). Overall, sales were up in 7 of 21 industries, representing 28.9 percent of the manufacturing sector. Sales of durable goods industries rose 1.7 percent m-o-m, while sales of nondurable goods industries declined 0.5 percent m-o-m.

  • The data from the Labor Department revealed Thursday the number of applications for unemployment benefits increased more than expected last week, as the drag from hurricane-related disruptions unwound,  but the underlying trend pointed to tightening labor market conditions. According to the report, the initial claims for unemployment benefits rose by 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 249,000 for the week ended November 11. Economists had expected 235,000 new claims last week. Claims for the prior week were unrevised at 239,000. Meanwhile, the four-week moving average of claims rose by 6,500 to 237,750 last week. It was the 141st straight week that claims remained below the 300,000 threshold, the longest streak since 1970.

  • The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia announced Thursday its index of current manufacturing activity in the region decreased to 22.7 this month from a reading of 27.9 in October. The November reading was the lowest reading since August and below economists’ forecast for a reading of 25.0. The details of the report all remained mostly positive, suggesting continued expansion. Both the new orders (+1.8 points m-o-m to 21.4 in November) and shipments indexes (-2.7 points m-o-m to 21.7) remained positive this month. The unfilled orders (+6.1 points m-o-m to 17.0) and delivery times (-7.0 points m-o-m to 14.6) indexes were also positive, suggesting longer delivery times and increases in unfilled orders. Meanwhile, the inventories index turned negative, falling 15 points to -8.6. The employment index (-8.0 points m-o-m to  22.6) stayed positive for 12 consecutive months. Almost all of the future indicators increased, and firms continue to expect growth in both activity and employment over the next six months, the survey noted.

  • The U.S. Labor Department reported Thursday the import-price index, measuring the cost of goods ranging from Canadian oil to Chinese electronics, rose 0.2 percent m-o-m in October after a revised 0.8-percent m-o-m increase in September (originally a 0.7 percent gain). Economists had expected prices to go up 0.4 percent m-o-m last month. According to the report, higher prices for both fuel (+1.4 percent m-o-m) and nonfuel (+0.2 percent m-o-m) imports contributed to the overall advance in import prices for October. Over the 12-month period ended October, import prices grew 2.5 percent. At the same time, the price index for U.S. exports recorded no change in October last month, following a 0.7-percent m-o-m gain in September.  Higher prices for agricultural exports (+1.9 percent m-o-m) were offset by lower prices for nonagricultural exports (-0.3 percent m-o-m). Over the past year, the price index for exports rose 2.7 percent.

  • The Federal Reserve revealed Thursday that the U.S. industrial production rose 0.9 percent in October, an upwardly revised 0.4 percent m-o-m increase in September (originally a 0.3 percent m-o-m gain). That was the biggest gain in industrial output since April. Economists had forecast industrial production would rise 0.5 percent m-o-m. According to the report, manufacturing output (+1.3 percent m-o-m) and utilities production (+2.0 percent m-o-m) rose last month, while mining output (-1.3 percent m-o-m) fell, as Hurricane Nate caused a sharp but short-lived decline in oil and gas drilling and extraction. Excluding the effects of the hurricanes, the index for total output advanced about 0.3 percent in October. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector increased 0.6 percentage point m-o-m in October to 77.0 percent. That was 0.7 percentage points above economists expectations, but  2.9 percentage points below the long-run (1972–2016) average for the reading.

  • The National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB) announced Thursday its housing market index (HMI) rose two points to 70 in November from an unrevised October reading of 68. That was the highest reading since March. Economists forecast the HMI to stay at 68. A reading over 50 indicates more builders view conditions as good than poor. Two out of the three HMI components recorded gains in November. Current sales measure rose two points to 77 and the indicator gauging buyer traffic increased two points to 50. Meanwhile, the index charting sales expectations in the next six months decreased one point to 77. NAHB Chairman Granger MacDonald said, “November’s builder confidence reading is close to a post-recession high - a strong indicator that the housing market continues to grow steadily. However, our members still face supply-side constraints, such as lot and labor shortages and ongoing building material price increases.” At the same time, NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz noted, “Demand for housing is increasing at a consistent pace, driven by job and economic growth, rising homeownership rates and limited housing inventory. With these economic fundamentals in place, we should see continued upward movement of the single-family housing market as we close out 2017.”  

  • Statistics New Zealand reported Friday that producer output prices increased 1.0 percent in the third quarter of 2017, following a 1.3 percent advance in the second quarter. Input prices also rose 1.0 percent last quarter after gaining 1.4 percent in the prior quarter. According to the report, higher electricity and farm-gate milk prices contributed to rises in producer output and input prices. In the September 2017 year, producer output prices increased by 5.3 percent, and producer input prices rose by 4.3 percent.

  • The latest Bank of New Zealand’s (BNZ) survey showed Friday that activity in New Zealand's manufacturing sector continued to expand in October at a slightly slower pace than in September. The BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) came in at 57.2 last month compared to an upwardly revised September’s reading of 57.6 (originally 57.5). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in economic activity, whereas a reading below that level represents contraction. Overall, the index has remained in expansion in all months since October 2012. In October, the 0.4-point m-o-m decline in the BusinessNZ PMI was attributable to decreases in sub-indexes of new orders (-0.6 points m-o-m to 60.1 in September), finished stocks (-0.4 points to 55.0) and deliveries (-0.4 points to 57.9). BusinessNZ’s executive director for manufacturing Catherine Beard noted that the fundamentals of the October result remained healthy. "The two main sub-index values of production (60.7) and new orders (60.1) indicated strong expansion for October.  Also, while the proportion of positive comments dipped in October (64.2 percent) compared with 69.5 percent in September, it was still similar to the 65 percent recorded in August.


III. Market Situation
Currency Market
The currency pair EUR/USD rose solidly, updating yesterday's high, due to increased political risks in the U.S. The Wall Street Journal reported yesterday that the Special Counsel Robert Mueller investigating Russian interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential election issued a subpoena to more than a dozen officials from Donald Trump's campaign. According to the WSJ, the subpoena was issued in mid-October and requested documents and emails with keywords related to Russia but didn’t compel any officials to testify before Mueller’s grand jury. Meanwhile, the further fall of the U.S. dollar was limited by news the  U.S. House of Representatives passed its version of a tax reform bill. The focus will now shift to the Senate, which is expected to vote on its version of a tax overhaul after Thanksgiving. Today, investors will pay attention to the speech of the ECB President Mario Draghi as well as the October data on housing starts and building permits in the U.S. Resistance level - $1.1857 (high of November 15). Support level - $1.1756 (low of November 16).

The currency pair GBP/USD rose significantly, refreshing its two-week high. The main catalyst for such dynamics was the broad weakening of the U.S. currency in response to the increased political risks in the United States. Meanwhile, the pound continued to receive support from yesterday’ report on retail sales in Britain. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported the UK’s retail sales grew 0.3 percent m-o-m in October, following a 0.7 percent m-o-m drop seen in September. Economists had forecast a 0.2 percent m-o-m gain. In y-o-y terms, retail sales volume fell 0.3 percent last month, reversing a revised 1.3 percent advance in September. That marked the first annual fall in retail sales in four years. Economists had expected the sales to drop 0.5 percent y-o-y in October. With an empty economic calendar in the UK ahead, investors will pay attention to the dynamics of the U.S. currency and the general market sentiment toward risky assets. Resistance level - $1.3319 (high of November 1). Support level - $1.3039 (low of November 3).

The currency pair AUD/USD rose moderately at the beginning of the session, but then lost all gains, and refreshed the low of June 26, despite the broad weakness of the U.S. dollar. The reason for the pair’s fall was risk aversion, caused by the latest news on North Korea. The data released in Australia had a little influence on the pair’s performance. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported new motor vehicle sales in the country were flat m-o-m in October in seasonally adjusted terms. That followed an unrevised 0.5 percent m-o-m decrease recorded in September. In y-o-y terms, sales were up 1.0 percent last month after falling 0.8 percent in the previous month. Resistance level - AUD0.7650 (high of November 14). Support level - AUD0.7532 (low of June 22).

The currency pair USD/JPY traded sharply lower, near the low of October 19, as risk aversion drove demand for safe haven assets. The focus also was on the statements of the Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who promised to beat "deflation once and for all." He pledged to use all policy tools, including tax reforms and deregulation, to push up wages in order to put an end to the country's persistent deflation. Resistance level - Y113.90 (high of November 14). Support level - Y112.08 (low of October 17).

Stock Market

Index

Value

Change

S&P

2,585.64

+0.82%

Dow

23,458.36

+0.80%

NASDAQ

6,793.29

+1.30%

Nikkei

22,396.80

+0.20%

Hang Seng

29,199.04

+0.62%

Shanghai

3,382.34

-0.50%

S&P/ASX

5,957.25

+0.23%


U.S. stock indexes closed higher on Thursday, with the Nasdaq notching a new all-time high, boosted by earnings-related gains in Wal-Mart (WMT) and Cisco (CSCO), while Washington took one step closer to tax reform, expected to boost corporate earnings. The U.S. House of Representatives passed its version of a tax reform bill, expected to be a boost to stock prices if it becomes law, but the legislative battle now shifts to the Senate, where the Republican majority is much slimmer. The focus also was on a raft of economic data. The data from the Labor Department revealed the number of applications for unemployment benefits increased more than expected last week, as the drag from hurricane-related disruptions unwound,  but the underlying trend pointed to tightening labor market conditions. According to the report, the initial claims for unemployment benefits rose by 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 249,000 for the week ended November 11. Economists had expected 235,000 new claims last week. It was the 141st straight week that claims remained below the 300,000 threshold, the longest streak since 1970. Another report from the Labor Department showed the import-price index rose 0.2 percent m-o-m in October after a revised 0.8-percent m-o-m increase in September (originally a 0.7 percent gain). Economists had expected prices to go up 0.4 percent m-o-m last month. According to the report, higher prices for both fuel (+1.4 percent m-o-m) and nonfuel (+0.2 percent m-o-m) imports contributed to the overall advance in import prices for October. Over the 12-month period ended October, import prices grew 2.5 percent. At the same time, the Federal Reserve announced that the U.S. industrial production rose 0.9 percent in October, an upwardly revised 0.4 percent m-o-m increase in September (originally a 0.3 percent m-o-m gain). That was the biggest gain in industrial output since April. Economists had forecast industrial production would rise 0.5 percent m-o-m. The National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB) reported its housing market index (HMI) rose two points to 70 in November from an unrevised October reading of 68. That was the highest reading since March. Economists forecast the HMI to stay at 68. A reading over 50 indicates more builders view conditions as good than poor.
Asian stock indexes closed mostly higher on Friday, tracking an overnight rally on Wall Street.

European stock indexes are expected to trade higher in the morning trading session.


Bond Market
Yields of US 10-year notes hold at 2.35% (-1 basis points)
Yields of German 10-year bonds hold at 0.38% (0 basis points)
Yields of UK 10-year gilts hold at 1.31% (0 basis points)

Commodity Markets
Light Sweet Crude Oil (WTI) futures traded higher. Crude oil for delivery in December settled at $55.35 (+0.38%). The crude oil prices rose as the U.S. dollar demonstrated the broad weakening. Market participants are now awaiting weekly data on the U.S. oil rig count from Baker Hughes. Recall, the report from Baker Hughes, which was released a week ago, showed that the number of active U.S. rigs drilling for oil rose by nine to 738 during the week ended November 10. That was the biggest weekly gain in oil drilling rigs since June.

Gold traded at $1282.50 (+0.31%). Gold prices rose as the U.S. currency weakened, hit by a report that  Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s team last month subpoenaed President Donald Trump’s campaign for documents containing specified Russian keywords from more than a dozen officials. The index, measuring the value of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of six major currencies, fell 0.37 percent to $93.59. Since gold prices are tied to the dollar, a weaker dollar makes the precious metal cheaper for holders of foreign currencies.

IV. The most important news that are expected (time GMT0)


08:30

Eurozone

ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks

09:00

Eurozone

Current account, unadjusted

10:00

Eurozone

Construction Output

13:30

Canada

Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core

13:30

Canada

Consumer price index

13:30

U.S.

Housing Starts

13:30

U.S.

Building Permits

18:00

U.S.

Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count


Kas svarbiausia rinkoje

  • Euro Area trade balance surplus declined significantly in August
  • Consumer prices in China were up 1.6 percent on year in September,
  • US consumer sentiment surged in early October, reaching its highest level since the start of 2004 says UoM
  • Earnings Season in U.S.: Major Reports of the Week
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