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Rinkos panorama. 19 Liepa 2018

DĖMESIO: Laisvai peržiūrėti Rinkos panoramos medžiagą galite šešias valandas po jos pateikimo. Jeigu norite šią medžiagą gauti iš karto, rekomenduojame ją užsiprenumeruoti.

I. Market focus:

Thursday’s session began with the publication of Australia’s labor market data. The statistics revealed that the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.4 percent in June from the previous month, while the employment was more than three times higher than expected (+50,900 versus economists’ forecast 0f +16,700). The Australian dollar reacted to the data with a growth, which could continue during the European and American sessions.

Another important topic at the beginning of Thursday’s session was the reduction by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) of its purchases of the Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) with a maturity of 25-40 year to JPY60 billion and those with the maturity of 10-25 years to JPY180 billion. At the previous operation, the volumes of purchases were 70 billion and 190 billion yen, respectively. The BoJ began to cut its purchases of JGBs last year. The yen rose modestly in response to the reports about today's slash in purchases of longer-maturity bonds, as markets, apparently, have already got used to the gradual reduction by the Japanese central bank of the JGBs purchases.

Thursday’s session will not be very busy with macroeconomic reports and events. The main data will be the UK’s retail sales (08:30 GMT), as well as the U.S. report on activity in the manufacturing sector of Philadelphia (12:30 GMT). In addition, attention should be paid to the comments of the Fed's vice-chairman for financial supervision Randal Quarles (13:00 GMT).

The stock market participants continue to assess the quarterly reports of companies, as the second-quarter earnings season rolls. Today, their quarterly results will post Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), Philip Morris International Inc. (PM), Union Pacific Corp. (UNP), The Bank of New York Mellon Corp. (BK) and Capital One Financial Corp. (COF).


II. The market highlights are:

  • The Commerce Department reported on Wednesday the building permits issued for privately owned housing units fell by 2.2 percent m-o-m in June to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 1.273 million, while housing starts tumbled by 12.3 percent m-o-m to an annual rate 1.173 million (the lowest rate since September of 2017 and the biggest monthly drop since November of 2016). Economists had forecast housing starts growing to a 1.320 million-unit pace last month and building permits increasing to a 1.330 million-unit rate. According to the report, permits for single-family homes, the largest segment of the market, increased 0.8 percent m-o-m to 850,000 in June, while approvals for the multi-family homes segment declined 7.6 percent m-o-m to a 423,000 unit-rate. In the meantime, groundbreaking on single-family homes plunged 9.1 percent m-o-m to an 858,000-unit pace in June, while housing starts for the multi-family segment declined 19.8 percent m-o-m to a 315,000-unit pace.

  • The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealed on Wednesday that crude inventories surged by 5.836 million barrels to 411.1 million barrels in the week ended July 13. Economists had forecast a decrease of 3.622 million barrels. At the same time, gasoline stocks dropped by 3.2 million barrels to 235.8 million barrels, while analysts had expected a drop of 400,000 barrels. Distillate stocks fell by 371,000 barrels to 121.3 million barrels last week, while analysts had forecast a gain of 700,000 barrels. Meanwhile, oil production in the U.S. rose to 11.000 million barrels per day from 10.900 million barrels per day in the previous week. U.S. crude oil imports averaged 9.1 million barrels per day last week, up by 1,635,000 barrels per day from the previous week.

  • The Federal Reserve's Beige Book, which collected information on economic conditions on or before July 9, 2018, from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts, indicated that economic activity continued to expand across the U.S. 10 of the 12 Districts reported moderate or modest growth. At the same time, manufacturers in all Districts expressed concerns about tariffs and in many Districts reported higher prices and supply disruptions, which they linked to new trade policies. Meanwhile, employment continued to improve at a modest to moderate pace in most Districts, while prices rose in all Districts at a pace that was modest to moderate on average, the report said.

  • The Ministry of Finance of Japan reported on Wednesday that the country’s trade balance came in at a surplus of a JPY721 bln in June, compared to a revised deficit of JPY581 billion in May (originally a gap of JPY578 billion) and a surplus of JPY433 billion in June of 2017. Economists had projected a JPY534 billion surplus for June. The report showed Japan’s exports rose more than imports. Exports climbed 6.7 percent y-o-y last month after a gain of 8.1 percent y-o-y in May. Meanwhile, imports increased 2.5 percent y-o-y in June, following a 14 percent y-o-y surge in the prior month.  

  • The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) announced on Thursday that the country’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.4 percent in June from May. That was in line with economists’ expectations. According to the report, the seasonally adjusted labour force participation rate rose to 65.7 percent in June from 65.5 percent in the prior month, while the number of unemployed persons dropped by 1,100 to 714,100. In the meantime, employment increased by 50,900 to 12,573,600 in June versus economists’ expectations of a gain of 17,000 following an advance of 13,500 jobs in the prior month (revised down from originally announced gain of 12,000).


III. Market Situation
Currency Market
The currency pair EUR/USD consolidated near the opening level due to the lack of new drivers. Investors continued to digest yesterday’s statements by the Fed’s Chair Jerome Powell, who reaffirmed the regulator will continue to increase rates gradually. Today, investors will pay attention to the U.S. reports on weekly jobless claims and activity in the manufacturing sector of Philadelphia, as well as the comments of the Fed's vice-chairman for financial supervision Randal Quarles. Economists forecast initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose to 220,000 last week from 214,000 in the prior week, and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index improved to 21.5 points in July from 19.9 points in June. Resistance level - $1.1744 (high of July 17). Support level - $1.1591 (low of July 2).

The currency pair GBP/USD traded in a narrow range. Investors took a breather after yesterday's plunge in the pair to a new 10-month low, which was caused by the publication of weak inflationary data in the UK and the broad strengthening of the U.S. currency. Market participants are now awaiting the release of the UK data on retail sales for June. According to economists’ forecasts, the UK’s retail sales in June increased by 0.2 percent m-o-m and by 3.7 percent y-o-y. Apart from the data, the focus of market participants will also be on the dynamics of the U.S. currency and the general market sentiment toward risky assets. Resistance level - $1.3301 (high of July 10). Support level - $1.3010 (low of July 18).

The currency pair AUD/USD rose sharply in response to positive statistics on Australia’s labor market, but then lost more than half of the gains on the back of a partial profit-taking. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported the country’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.4 percent in June from May. That was in line with economists’ expectations. According to the report, the seasonally adjusted labour force participation rate rose to 65.7 percent in June from 65.5 percent in the prior month, while the number of unemployed persons dropped by 1,100 to 714,100. In the meantime, employment increased by 50,900 to 12,573,600 in June versus economists’ expectations of a gain of 17,000 following an advance of 13,500 jobs in the prior month (revised down from originally announced gain of 12,000). Resistance level - AUD0.7442 (high of July 16). Support level - AUD0.7343 (low of July 18).

The currency pair USD/JPY dropped slightly, following the reports the Bank of Japan (BoJ) cut its purchases of longer-maturity government bonds but soon recovered to the opening level. The pair’s performance was also influenced by the report from the Ministry of Finance of Japan, which showed the country’s trade balance came in at a surplus of a JPY721 bln in June, compared to a revised deficit of JPY581 billion in May (originally a gap of JPY578 billion) and a surplus of JPY433 billion in June of 2017. Economists had projected a JPY534 billion surplus for June. The report showed Japan’s exports rose more than imports. Exports climbed 6.7 percent y-o-y last month after a gain of 8.1 percent y-o-y in May. Meanwhile, imports increased 2.5 percent y-o-y in June, following a 14 percent y-o-y surge in the prior month. Resistance level - Y113.17 (high of January 9). Support level - Y112.22 (low of July 16-17).

Stock Market

Index

Value

Change

S&P

2,815.62

+0.22%

Dow

25,199.29

+0.32%

NASDAQ

7,854.44

-0.01%

Nikkei

22,764.68

-0.13%

Hang Seng

28,053.59

-0.23%

Shanghai

2,772.98

-0.51%

S&P/ASX

6,262.70

+0.28%


U.S. stock indexes closed mostly higher on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 hitting its highest level in more than five months, as financials and industrials advanced, supported by a largely upbeat slew of Q2 earnings. Investors also assessed the U.S. housing market data and the Fed's Beige Book. The Commerce Department reported the building permits issued for privately owned housing units fell by 2.2 percent m-o-m in June to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 1.273 million, while housing starts tumbled by 12.3 percent m-o-m to an annual rate 1.173 million (the lowest rate since September of 2017 and the biggest monthly drop since November of 2016). Economists had forecast housing starts growing to a 1.320 million-unit pace last month and building permits increasing to a 1.330 million-unit rate. According to the Fed's Beige Book, economic activity continued to expand across the U.S., with 10 of the 12 Federal Reserve Districts reporting moderate or modest growth. At the same time, manufacturers in all Districts expressed concerns about tariffs and in many Districts reported higher prices and supply disruptions, which they linked to new trade policies.

Asian stock indexes closed mixed on Thursday, as trade war fears lingered. Yesterday, National Economic Council (NEC) Director Larry Kudlow said in an interview with CNBC that trade talks with China have stalled, as China Chinese President Xi Jinping has no intention of following through.

European stock indexes are expected to trade mixed in the morning trading session.


Bond Market
Yields of US 10-year notes hold at 2.89% (+2 basis points)
Yields of German 10-year bonds hold at 0.28% (0 basis points)
Yields of UK 10-year gilts hold at 1.23% (0 basis points)

Commodity Markets
Light Sweet Crude Oil (WTI) futures traded lower. Crude oil for delivery in August settled at  $67.58 (-0.25%). The crude oil prices declined slightly, as investors continued to digest the latest data on the U.S. crude inventories. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported yesterday that crude inventories surged by 5.836 million barrels to 411.1 million barrels in the week ended July 13. Economists had forecast a decrease of 3.622 million barrels. At the same time, gasoline stocks dropped by 3.2 million barrels to 235.8 million barrels, while analysts had expected a drop of 400,000 barrels. Distillate stocks fell by 371,000 barrels to 121.3 million barrels last week, while analysts had forecast a gain of 700,000 barrels. Meanwhile, oil production in the U.S. rose to 11.000 million barrels per day from 10.900 million barrels per day in the previous week. U.S. crude oil imports averaged 9.1 million barrels per day last week, up by 1,635,000 barrels per day from the previous week.

Gold traded at  $1,223.10 (-0.34%). Gold prices fell moderately, responding to the positive dynamics of the U.S. currency and yesterday’s statements by the Fed Chair Powell, who reaffirmed the regulator will continue to increase rates gradually. The index, measuring the value of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of six major currencies, rose 0.02 percent to 95.10. Since gold prices are tied to the dollar, a stronger dollar makes the precious metal more expensive for holders of foreign currencies.

IV. The most important scheduled events (time GMT 0)


08:30

United Kingdom

Retail Sales

12:30

U.S.

Initial Jobless Claims

12:30

U.S.

Continuing Jobless Claims

12:30

U.S.

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey

14:00

U.S.

Leading Indicators

22:45

New Zealand

Visitor Arrivals

23:30

Japan

National Consumer Price Index

Kas svarbiausia rinkoje

  • U.S consumer sentiment slipped in early July but remained nearly equal to the average in the prior twelve months
  • Earnings Season in U.S.: Major Reports of the Week
  • Fed's Kaplan: Could be convinced of need for fourth rate hike in 2018 depending on outlook
  • Fed: Prospective economic conditions call for further gradual removal of monpol accommodation
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